Credit: Autonomous Vehicles Ideas Singapore (Video, Facebook)
As mentioned at the start of the blog, the Singaporean government has been very optimistic about the use of autonomous vehicles in its websites and publications. Autonomous vehicles are seen to be a step towards Singapore’s vision as a “car-lite” and “smart nation”. The government has taken prominent steps to advance the development of autonomous vehicles through the formation of a Committee on Autonomous Road Transport for Singapore (CARTS) as well as partnerships with autonomous vehicle developers to initiate test trials. However, accidents and external developments such as the stance that other cities take against autonomous vehicles are likely to influence public perception of autonomous vehicles. This will impact the pace of integrating autonomous vehicles into Singapore’s transport system. With the assumption that the transport industry will follow a transformation pathway, this post and the subsequent one will seek to delineate the possible developments in Singapore and address obstacles to its adoption in Singapore.
Allow me to address why I think that the socio-technical transition for autonomous vehicles in Singapore will be that of a transformation pathway. To recap briefly, transformation is characterised by moderately disruptive landscape pressures, premature niche development and a new regime that is shaped by regime actors, which grows out of the old regime gradually and is not fundamentally different from the old regime.
The transport system in Singapore is highly regulated by the government, which could be seen as the main regime actor. The Land Transport Authority is the main regulating body with regards to transport, related infrastructure and policy-making. Some of the problems faced by the city-state include peak hour congestion, pollution, manpower and land constraints. These could be seen as moderately disruptive landscape pressures as there are other policies and measures in place to address these problems, but the government is seeking more effective ways to do so. For example, autonomous vehicles could improve mass transport, point-to-point, mobility on-demand services, freight and utility operations.
Mass transport and point-to-point, on-demand services
One of the goals that Singapore has set in the Sustainable Singapore Blueprint 2015 is a peak hour modal share of 75% for public transport by 2030, an increase from 64% in 2013. To achieve this target, the government has taken action to make public transport more attractive by improving its reliability and connectivity. For example, the rail network is planned to double by 2030 and infrastructure to facilitate walking and cycling to transport nodes have been built. This has been complemented by policies to reduce car ownership and mileage, such as through the Vehicle Quota System. However, the convenience of owning a car remains attractive to many Singaporeans (The Straits Times, 2016).
As such, the Singapore government is exploring the development of self-driving taxis, which could be a cheaper alternative to human-driven taxis to improve the first- and last- mile connectivity to transport nodes. Driverless buses would also help to increase safety and reliability of mass transport. Autonomous vehicles could also facilitate greater accessibility to car-sharing and the integration of hybrid electric vehicles to reduce the detrimental impacts of private car ownership.
Freight and utility operations
By removing the need for a human driver, freight trucks could travel at night, which could allow for more efficient use of roads. Public services such as road sweeping could also be operated without a driver.
Despite the potential applications of autonomous vehicles, the technology remains largely premature and is being pushed forward by the government by funding and allowing the trials to be carried out on its roads. There are several trials being conducted in various parts of Singapore, such as one-north and Gardens by the Bay (refer to smartnation.sg for more details of other autonomous vehicles trials that are ongoing). As the government views autonomous vehicles as a way to fill the gaps in the public transport system rather than restructure the whole transport system, the transport structure is unlikely to change significantly. Thus, the adoption of autonomous vehicles is likely to follow the path of transformation.
In consideration of other developments such as ridesharing, the next post will address the likelihood of reconfiguration as a pathway, as well as the challenges of adopting autonomous vehicles in Singapore.
Driverless Cities 